Global Net Zero Tracker
The current signal
44.4 / 100
The global transition remains meaningfully off the pace required for net zero by 2050. Deployment continues to improve, but policy reversals, fossil lock-in, conflict and physical-climate risks slightly weakened the balance this week.
Showing the latest saved assessment.
On the current observed emissions direction, net zero has no projected achievement year.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions are not yet falling. They rose again in 2025, so extending the latest observed direction does not intersect zero.
Historical global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions used in the chart: 36.3 gigatonnes in 2021, 36.8 in 2022, 37.4 in 2023, 37.8 in 2024 and 38.4 in 2025.
Method and assumptions
Historical series: IEA global energy-related CO2 emissions: 2021 36.3 Gt; 2022 36.8 Gt; 2023 37.4 Gt; 2024 37.8 Gt; 2025 nearly 38.4 Gt.
Current-rate projection: the latest IEA annual change, around +0.4% in 2025, is compounded annually from the 2025 level purely as a trajectory illustration. It is not a climate forecast.
2050 path: a simple straight-line reduction from 38.4 Gt in 2025 to 0 Gt in 2050, equal to 1.536 Gt CO2 per year. This is an editorial comparison, not an IEA scenario.
Scope: energy-related CO2 from fuel combustion and industrial processes. This is not the same as total global greenhouse-gas emissions.
What moved this week
Positive drivers
- Energy system transitionRenewables are expected to grow and overtake coal, although power-sector emissions remain under pressure.
- Transport transitionGlobal EV sales continued to rise, led by Europe and emerging markets.
- Technology readiness and deploymentSolar and storage continue to scale and respond quickly to energy-security pressures.
Negative drivers
- Policy, regulation and public financeRecent decisions redirected clean-industry funding and weakened implementation signals.
- Industry and heavy emissionsFunded decisions reinforced coal-fired steelmaking rather than cleaner production routes.
- Physical climate and feedback risksWildfire and heat risks continued to increase pressure on transition delivery.
Ten-factor assessment
| Factor | Direction | Impact | Confidence | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy system transition | Positive | 1.8 | High | Renewables continue to grow, but coal use is keeping power-sector emissions elevated. |
| Policy, regulation and public finance | Negative | -3 | High | Policy reversals and redirected public finance weakened the signal. |
| Capital flows and corporate action | Negative | -2 | High | Corporate commitments and capital allocation moved further from the required pathway. |
| Transport transition | Positive | 1 | Medium | Global EV sales rose, despite pronounced regional weakness. |
| Industry and heavy emissions | Negative | -2.5 | High | New funding reinforced conventional coal-fired steelmaking. |
| Land use, agriculture and nature | Positive | 0.5 | Medium | Deforestation alerts improved, but durability remains uncertain. |
| Technology readiness and deployment | Positive | 1 | Medium | Solar and storage continue scaling, while other technologies remain uneven. |
| Buildings and efficiency | Negative | -0.5 | Low | No new evidence shows improvement at the pace required. |
| Global coordination and execution risk | Negative | -2 | High | Conflict and policy fragmentation increased execution risk. |
| Physical climate and feedback risks | Negative | -2.5 | High | Wildfire and heat signals raised physical-climate pressure. |
Fourthmore interpretation
The world appears to be moving slightly slower than at the prior reading. Long-term renewable, storage and EV deployment remains real, but the newest funded and implemented decisions reinforce fossil infrastructure. The decline reflects deterioration at the margin, not a wholesale change in trajectory.
What this means for business
Use the signal as context for decisions: test assumptions, watch the factors affecting your business and seek closer evidence where exposure is material.
Evidence
Previous assessments
- 44.5The transition remained below the pace required for a credible 2050 pathway.
- 44.6The reading was unchanged, with deployment gains offset by policy and execution risks.
Methodology
The tracker is a directional decision-support signal, not a scientific probability or forecast. Each weekly assessment reviews current public evidence across ten factors, records the direction and materiality of movement, and preserves the evidence used.
- Review recent, decision-relevant developments.
- Prioritise primary and authoritative evidence.
- Assess ten consistent transition factors.
- Record direction, impact and confidence.
- Compare the result with the prior reading.
- Publish only after human review.