Global Net Zero Tracker
The Global Net Zero Tracker (GNZT) is Fourthmore’s weekly expert assessment of whether the world is moving closer to or further away from net zero. It combines ten structural transition factors into a directional score from 0–100, supported by published evidence and human review. The tracker separates structural change from daily news noise to give decision-makers a clear, comparable signal.
The current signal
44.3 / 100
The Net Zero Weekly Signal edges down to 44.3 from 44.4. Clean electricity, battery costs and European EV economics remain strong structural supports, but a newly contracted expansion of Venezuelan oil production, another delay to U.S. federal-building fossil-energy limits, weak green-hydrogen demand and fresh wildfire-feedback evidence slightly worsen the implementation-weighted balance.
Showing the latest saved assessment.
On the current observed emissions direction, net zero has no projected achievement year.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions are not yet falling. They rose again in 2025, so extending the latest observed direction does not intersect zero.
Historical global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions used in the chart: 36.3 gigatonnes in 2021, 36.8 in 2022, 37.4 in 2023, 37.8 in 2024 and 38.4 in 2025.
Method and assumptions
Historical series: IEA global energy-related CO2 emissions: 2021 36.3 Gt; 2022 36.8 Gt; 2023 37.4 Gt; 2024 37.8 Gt; 2025 nearly 38.4 Gt.
Current-rate projection: the latest IEA annual change, around +0.4% in 2025, is compounded annually from the 2025 level purely as a trajectory illustration. It is not a climate forecast.
2050 path: a simple straight-line reduction from 38.4 Gt in 2025 to 0 Gt in 2050, equal to 1.536 Gt CO2 per year. This is an editorial comparison, not an IEA scenario.
Scope: energy-related CO2 from fuel combustion and industrial processes. This is not the same as total global greenhouse-gas emissions.
What moved this week
Positive drivers
- Clean power and technology economicsrenewables supplied 99% of global electricity growth in 2025, clean-energy investment reached USD 2.1 trillion, and falling battery costs continue to improve the economics of electrification.
- European road transportbattery-electric cars were 33% cheaper to drive than gasoline cars in 2025, reached 22% of first-half 2026 sales, and electric-truck sales rose 40% year on year.
- Forest financethe UK's proposed GBP 400 million loan could add meaningful, performance-based capital to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, subject to governance and due-diligence conditions.
Negative drivers
- Long-lived oil expansionChevron committed more than USD 7 billion to more than double Venezuelan production to 600,000 barrels per day, while Eni signed a 25-year Junin 5 contract and the wider plan targets more than 1 million barrels per day by 2031.
- Hard-sector and system underdeliveryglobal emissions are plateauing rather than falling, and L&T's postponed 1 GW electrolyser expansion shows weak green-hydrogen demand is constraining industrial scale-up.
- Policy and physical-risk dragU.S. federal-building fossil-energy limits were delayed again, while WMO reports worsening wildfire-smoke and heatwave-driven ozone risks.
Ten-factor assessment
| Factor | Direction | Impact | Confidence | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy system transition | Negative | -2 | High | The contracted U.S.-Venezuela package would more than double Chevron's Venezuelan output to 600,000 barrels per day, gives Eni a 25-year development contract and targets more than 1 million barrels per day by 2031. Türkiye's 43% renewable generation share in 2025 and plans for grid expansion and 7.5 GW of storage are positive, but mostly planned and smaller in this week's marginal assessment. |
| Transport transition | Positive | 1 | High | ICCT evidence shows European battery-electric cars were 33% cheaper to drive than gasoline cars in 2025, reached 22% of first-half 2026 sales, and electric-truck sales rose 40% year on year. The gain is tempered by U.S. battery-electric market share falling to 6.2% in August 2026 from 10.1% a year earlier. |
| Industry and heavy emissions | Negative | -1 | Medium | Larsen & Toubro deferred its planned expansion of electrolyser manufacturing capacity from 400 MW to 1 GW because green-hydrogen demand is weaker than expected. This is a concrete sign that hard-to-abate-sector demand and offtake remain behind announced ambitions, consistent with the ETC's wider finding that industrial heat and other hard sectors still face green premiums or early-stage solutions. |
| Buildings and efficiency | Negative | -1 | High | The U.S. Department of Energy extended the compliance stay for fossil-energy reduction requirements in certain new and substantially renovated federal buildings until 1 March 2027, delaying an implemented efficiency and electrification standard. |
| Land use, agriculture, and nature | Positive | 1 | Medium | The UK announced its intention to invest GBP 400 million through a loan to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which is designed to reward verified protection of standing tropical forests. The contribution is potentially material but remains conditional on governance, due diligence and final loan terms, so it is not scored as delivered finance. |
| Policy, regulation, and public finance | Negative | -2 | High | The U.S.-Venezuela agreements direct public policy and private capital toward long-lived oil expansion, while U.S. federal-building fossil-energy requirements were delayed again. The UK's conditional forest-finance commitment and Germany's capacity mechanism partly offset this, but the latter remains technology-neutral and may support new gas alongside storage and demand response. |
| Capital flows and corporate action | Negative | -1 | High | Chevron's more than USD 7 billion five-year Venezuelan investment and Eni's 25-year oil contract are implementation-backed fossil commitments. Record global clean-energy investment of USD 2.1 trillion remains the larger structural flow, but the new marginal capital signal this week is negative. |
| Technology readiness and deployment | Positive | 2 | High | Renewables supplied 99% of global electricity growth in 2025, global battery costs fell 35% from 2020 to 2025, and European electric vehicles are reaching operating-cost and, in major car segments, upfront-cost parity. These are deployed cost and market outcomes, although grids and hard-sector scale-up remain bottlenecks. |
| Physical climate and feedback risks | Negative | -2 | High | WMO's September bulletin says extreme fire-smoke events have tripled globally since the 1990s and that heatwaves are worsening ground-level ozone risks. Rising wildfire pollution and black-carbon deposition increase health, ecosystem and feedback risks and complicate transition execution. |
| Global coordination and execution risk | Neutral | 0 | Medium | UN Climate Week 4 opened with an implementation focus ahead of COP31, but no delivered multinational outcome was available by the reading cutoff. The German capacity mechanism and Türkiye review show active system planning, while the oil expansion and political fragmentation show execution moving in both directions. |
Fourthmore interpretation
The world appears to be moving slightly slower toward a credible net-zero-by-2050 pathway than at the previous published reading. Structural progress in clean electricity, batteries and European road transport is strong and increasingly economic without heroic assumptions. However, it is still adding clean supply faster than it is displacing fossil supply: emissions are plateauing, new oil production is receiving long-term contracts and capital, and policy and industrial execution remain uneven. The 0.1-point decline is intentionally small because this week's positives are real and measurable, while several negatives are regional or confirm risks already embedded in the index. This is a market-style signal, not a scientific probability forecast.
What this means for business
Use the signal as context for decisions: test assumptions, watch the factors affecting your business and seek closer evidence where exposure is material.
What does this mean for you?
Fourthmore target relevance
No relevance data
Evidence
- Energy Transition Monitor 2026
- FACT SHEET: Delivering on President Trump's Promise to Unleash Prosperity and Security for the United States and Venezuela
- EV Transition Check 2026: Measuring progress toward zero emissions for road transport in Europe
- NADA Market Beat: New Light-Vehicle Sales SAAR Hits 16.8 Million Units in August 2026
- Investment boost for climate action and forest protection
- Türkiye can build on strong energy foundations to meet rising demand, new IEA review says
- Repeal of Fossil Fuel Restrictions for New Federal Buildings and Major Renovations of Federal Buildings
- Commission approves German capacity mechanism of up to EUR 35 billion to secure electricity supply
- Weak green hydrogen demand puts L&T's 1 GW plan on ice
- WMO bulletin shows air quality and climate interlinkages
- From Yeosu to Baku, translating 2026 climate commitments into real-world solutions
Related Field Note: The transition is working. That’s why it’s getting harder.
Previous assessments
- 44.4The global transition remained meaningfully off the pace required for net zero by 2050. Deployment continued to improve, but policy reversals, fossil lock-in, conflict and physical-climate risks slightly weakened the balance that week.
- 44.5The transition remained below the pace required for a credible 2050 pathway.
- 44.6The reading was unchanged, with deployment gains offset by policy and execution risks.
Methodology
The tracker is a directional decision-support signal, not a scientific probability or forecast. Each weekly assessment reviews current public evidence across ten factors, records the direction and materiality of movement, and preserves the evidence used.
- Review recent, decision-relevant developments.
- Prioritise primary and authoritative evidence.
- Assess ten consistent transition factors.
- Record direction, impact and confidence.
- Compare the result with the prior reading.
- Publish only after human review.